Methodology
Assumptions on the table.
We publish the model assumptions, validation boundaries, and uncertainty handling. Judge the system on its merits.
Biology models with sources attached.
Species behavior assumptions trace back to documented sources and regional validation work.
| Species | Status | Accuracy | Data Points | Temp Range | Depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
European Seabass Dicentrarchus labrax | Validated | 84% | 42,000+ | 12-18°C | 0-100m |
Atlantic Cod Gadus morhua | Validated | 79% | 38,000+ | 4-10°C | 0-600m |
European Pollack Pollachius pollachius | Validated | 76% | 28,000+ | 8-14°C | 0-200m |
Northern Pike Esox lucius | Beta | 72% | 15,000+ | 10-20°C | 0-30m |
Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus | Validated | 81% | 35,000+ | 8-14°C | 0-200m |
Brown Trout Salmo trutta | Beta | 68% | 12,000+ | 6-18°C | 0-20m |
Method Note
Nearshore physics in production.
Wave guidance accounts for propagation and transformation so the call reflects what happens at the break.
Data Sources
- NOAA WaveWatch III: Global spectral wave model, 0.5 degree resolution
- Copernicus Marine: European regional wave forecasts
- NDBC Buoy Network: Real-time wave height, period, direction
- Sentinel-1 SAR: Ocean surface wind fields
Physics Model
Spectral wave energy balance equations track swell across the basin:
∂E/∂t + ∇·(CgE) = Sin - Sds + Snl
Where E = spectral energy density, Cg = group velocity, and S terms represent wind input, dissipation, and nonlinear interactions.
Local Calibration
Each surf spot requires local calibration factors:
- Bathymetry: Shoaling and refraction coefficients
- Exposure: Swell window angles (which swells reach the spot)
- Historical fit: Adjustment from observed vs predicted