Audit: Validating North Sea Gadoid Behavior
This entry summarizes our internal Species Validation Report for North Sea gadoid behavior signals. The goal is not to claim certainty, but to show what we tested, what matched, and where uncertainty remains.
Headline Result
Species Algorithms: 79/87 validated (91%) when compared against peer-reviewed behavioral references under the conditions defined in the audit protocol.
This validation was conducted against 15 years of ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) catch data, covering the Southern Bight and central North Sea regions.
Methodology
We compared PelagicLabs algorithmic outputs against 87 distinct behavioral parameters extracted from peer-reviewed literature. These parameters cover:
- Temperature preference ranges for 12 target species
- Seasonal migration patterns and timing
- Depth distribution by time of year
- Feeding behavior correlations with tidal and lunar phases
- Pressure sensitivity thresholds
What We Validate
- Behavioral alignment under defined environmental windows (temperature, seasonality, coastal exposure).
- Signal stability across independent data sources (satellite + observations + local sensors).
- Failure modes when observations are sparse or conflicting.
Confidence-First Design
We don't guess. When data is sparse, our confidence indicators drop. The product is designed to surface uncertainty so decisions stay honest. Every prediction includes:
- A confidence score (0-100%) based on data freshness and coverage
- Explicit limiting factors when applicable
- Data source age indicators
Limitations
- Validation is bounded by the audit dataset and protocol definitions.
- Regional transfer may not hold without recalibration.
- Confidence indicators are part of the output and should be used alongside official forecasts.
- Atlantic-facing coasts require separate validation (in progress).
Data Sources
This validation draws from the following peer-reviewed and institutional sources:
- ICES Catch Statistics (2008-2023)
- EMODnet Biology occurrence records
- North Sea fish community surveys
- Published behavioral ecology literature